Macro Command Centre
Geopolitical macro intelligence for investment professionals.
Macro Health Composite
0.35
Deteriorating · Stagflation regime with high conviction; cut growth forecasts, entrenched energy-driven inflation, and material central bank divergence outweigh the still-orderly functioning of core markets.
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MHC Radar (5-component)
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Regime
Risk-on
Deteriorating
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Issue Freshness
Issue 33 · 11 August 2026
Asymmetric read
Asset Class × Jurisdiction
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Directional regime bias only. Not investment recommendations. Empty cells (—) indicate no tracked signal.
Action Feed
- USTR Section 301 forced-labor tariffs enacted against 60 economies
- Middle East hostilities resume after June 17 ceasefire MoU; Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained
- FOMC holds at 3.50-3.75% with rare 9-3 dissent
- ECB holds after June hike; energy-shock inflation bias intact into September
- BOJ continues normalization, raising policy rate to ~1.0%
Showing 5 of 10 developments.
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Tail Risk Heatmap
| Slug | Impact | Trend | Title | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MED | Stable | Hormuz Closure / Energy Shock | 2026-08-04 |
| 2 | MED | Stable | NBFI / Private-Credit Redemption Cascade | 2026-08-04 |
| 3 | MED | Stable | Sovereign Debt / EM Stress | 2026-08-04 |
| 4 | MED | Stable | Tariff Escalation to T4/T5 | 2026-08-04 |
| 5 | MED | Stable | AI-Capex / Concentration Unwind | 2026-08-04 |
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All tracked risks currently HIGH impact — reflects current stress regime. Downstream links route through the populated HIGH row until the MED and LOW bands fill.
Regime Score Trajectory
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Regime-band overlay: the shaded band marks the current regime so a single-reading series still reads meaningfully. The trajectory line appears once a second weekly reading lands.
Weekly Brief
USTR enacts Section 301 forced-labor tariffs on 60 economies after Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs and Section 122 surcharge expired
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- The stagflation regime is confirmed with high conviction as three of five major central banks explicitly cite supply-shock inflation alongside cut global growth forecasts.
- Tariff legal fragility is a distinct and underpriced macro risk factor given the pattern of repeated judicial invalidation over the past six months.
- The resumption of Middle East hostilities keeps the Fast Cascade energy-shock pathway materially live despite risk asset pricing that suggests a durable de-escalation.
Showing 3 of 5 key judgments.
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